Achieve Profits
Monthly Newsletters
April 1996 – March 1999

Gary H. Elsner, Ph.D., Editor

Contents

Here is a listing of past publications by Dr. Gary H. Elsner. Each publication has a link to the complete publication along with a short description of that issue.

Each issue of the Achieve Profits newsletter contains a lead article on how to use Monocle for investing and mutual fund trading. This set of newsletters covers everything from the steps to get started to very advanced systems development concepts that only the most advanced money managers are utilizing. It also includes a section titled “Kick Starting” with key introductory suggestions and a section titled “Exotica” covering advanced concepts and methods.

Volume 1, Number 1

  • Lead Article: Making Profits (an Introduction to Monocle)
  • Kick Starting: How to Load Monocle and a Fund Group and modify a Fund Group.
  • Exotica: Tips for Tough Times (Adding Money Market funds to your Fund Groups)
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Sectors of the U.S. Market, Stocks which Represent U.S. Sectors, For Institutional Money Mangers and Others with Similar Goals.

Volume 1, Number 2

  • Lead Article: Monocle II Enhancements
  • Kick Starting: Beginning with Monocle II
    1. Starting the Program and Specifying Fund Groups
    2. Establishing a Dynamic Asset Allocation System
    3. Closing Screens and Summary
  • Exotica: Multiple Fund Groups (The importance of Dynamic Asset Allocation.)
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 1, Number 3

  • Lead Article: Expectations (Article on returns that you might reasonably expect using Monocle.)
  • Kick Starting: Specifying a New Fund Group
  • Exotica: Weeding out Duplicates (How to use the Correlation Matrix feature to increase profits.)
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 1, Number 4

  • Lead Article: Monocle Rankings beat Elaine Garzarelli
  • Kick Starting: How to Backtest
  • Exotica: Backtesting (The reasons and approaches.)
  • Supplementary Article: Managing Down-Side Risks and Maintaining Profits (Using the Stop rules.)
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 1, Number 5

  • Lead Article: The Tightrope Trader
  • Kick Starting: Refining Fund Groups
  • Exotica: How to Optimize
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 1, Number 6

  • Lead Article: Monitoring and Trading (Practical Daily Guidelines)
  • Kick Starting: Creating and Using Chart Templates
  • Exotica: Using External Signals (Backtesting with Timing Signals, etc.)
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 1, Number 7

  • Lead Article: Nice Stats (Using the Statistical features of Monocle II.)
  • Kick Starting: How to Build a Statistics Template
  • Exotica: How to Build a Multi-Period Statistics Template
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 1, Number 8

  • Lead Article: Cuddly Composites – how to use Composites for top down investing.
  • Kick Starting: How to build and analyze composites.
  • Exotica: Trading Composites – how to set up a trading system for Composites.
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 2, Number 1

  • Lead Article: Plain Vanilla – the four basic steps used in building a trading system.
  • Kick Starting: Using “Manual Update”.
  • Exotica: Multi-Period Statistics.
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 2, Number 2

  • Note: This is the first issue to describe two new and exciting trading systems.
  • Lead Article: Achieve Select One ALP – description of a new trading system using the Adaptive Learning Process (ALP).
  • Kick Starting: Transitioning to a Trading System.
  • Exotica: Introduction to “Achieve Rydex OTC” Trading System.
  • The World of Investing: Country Performance, U.S. Market Performance, Institutional Money Managers

Volume 2, Number 3

  • Lead Article: Achieve Rydex OTC – describes how this system was developed and the characteristics we expect to see in its execution.
  • Kick Starting: Composites of Fidelity Select Funds – defines 10 composites of the Fidelity Select funds that represent the broad areas of the U.S. economy.
  • Exotica: Abelow Select Twelve – describes a new trading system that uses several Fidelity Select funds.

Volume 2, Number 4

  • Lead Article: Achieve Safe Harbor LTF – describes a system which uses only funds classified as “safe harbor” funds.
  • Kick Starting: Quarterly Review of all Published Trading Systems
  • Exotics: Using the Charting Capability to Switch Between Two Funds

Volume 2, Number 5

  • Lead Article: Market Timing – examines the usefulness of market timing.
  • Kick Starting: Monocle Market Information Group – describes a new fund group that can be used to examine overall market performance.
  • Exotica: Monocle based Entry and Exit Timing Systems – describes how to set up and use Monocle based market timing systems.

Volume 2, Number 6

  • Lead Article: Achieve Index One – describes a system which uses the S&P 500 index and a widely divergent fund.
  • Kick Starting: Stepping Out – describes how to use the “step” feature in Monocle.
  • Exotica: Calculating Performance with Inflows and Outflows – how to keep track of the value of your portfolio when you have taken some money out and added money at other points.

Volume 2, Number 7

  • Lead Article: Super Models – describes how to use Monocle to examine several small groups simultaneously. This is a breakthrough concept in advanced systems design!
  • Kick Starting: How to Set Up Super Models – goes through the step by step details of how to put this type of system into practice.
  • Exotica: Alpha, Alpha/SD, Beta, Return, Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum --- all defined for your investing pleasure.

Volume 2, Number 8

  • Lead Article: A Real Smooth Ride – describes a system that has a very smooth equity curve!
  • Kick Starting: How to Observe the Performance of Super Models – describes the step by steps of how to see the performance of this exciting class of systems.
  • Exotica: Definitions related to Super Models – contains key definitions.

Volume 2, Number 9

  • Lead Article: Super Doubles – describes a system with diverse investment alternatives and a smooth equity curve.
  • Kick Starting: The Ulcer Index Defined – perhaps the most important measurement of risk is defined here.
  • Exotica: Calculating and Interpreting Risk Adjusted Returns for Trading Systems

Volume 2, Number 10

  • Lead Article: Out of Sight – describes a new system which uses 3 groups of funds, each containing two funds.
  • Kick Starting: Two Topics: (1) Ulcer Index Performance and (2) When to enter the market
  • Exotica: Mutual Fund Explorer

Volume 2, Number 11

  • Lead Article: Simple Triple – a breakthrough trading system that capitalizes on the 3-part diversity of the U.S. economy.
  • Kick Starting: What’s Robust? – discusses the use of the concept of “robustness”.
  • Exotica: Developing a Robust System

Volume 2, Number 12

  • Lead Article: A Pretty Picture --- compares in one chart and narrative the performance results of the Achieve Systems for calendar year 1997.
  • Kick Starting: Upgrading Your Version of the Monocle II Program
  • Exotica: Details on Calculating Performance

Volume 3, Number 1

  • Lead Article: 1998 Enhancements – describes the improvements in systems for 1998.
  • Kick Starting: Eight Systems for 1998 – includes all the parameter values for these important 8 systems.

Volume 3, Number 2

  • Lead Article: Heuristic Selects – illustrates the heuristic method in deriving an annual buy and hold strategy for the Fidelity Selects. You’ll just have to read this article to see the power of “heuristics”!
  • Kick Starting: Using Monocle to Monitor the YTD Performance of this Annual Trading System
  • Exotica: Using Monocle and Excel to Test Annual Trading Rules – an important description of how to combine these powerful programs.

Volume 3, Number 3

  • Lead Article: Conservative – discusses a relatively low risk investment model.
  • Kick Starting: Exciting New Rydex Funds – describes the new Rydex Funds that are designed to be traded!
  • Exotica: Selecting Low Ulcer Fidelity Funds --- the Fidelity Select funds ranked by risk.

Volume 3, Number 4

  • Lead Article: Conservative Diversified 3 --- a new trading system for the conservative objective.
  • Kick Starting: Using Money Market Funds in Trading Systems – an important safety feature.
  • Exotica: Selecting Low Ulcer and High Performance Diversified Funds – a “how-to” article.

Volume 3, Number 5

  • Lead Article: A Higher Plane – it turns out that Monocle can be used to implement very advanced trading systems – here we describe how to “trade equity curves”. That is, how to build a system that will tell us which of several trading systems are the best to use currently. A very powerful concept!
  • Kick Starting: Revised Model for “Conservative Fidelity 3”
  • Exotica: Step-by-Steps for Trading the Equity Curves --- here’s exactly how to do it.

Volume 3, Number 6

  • Lead Article: Eyeballing – so you don’t want to use “formal” trading systems? This method may be for you.
  • Kick Starting: Sending DAA’s to Your Friends --- it’s easy to email your trading systems to your friends so they can use them also and you can compare notes.
  • Exotica: Step-by-Steps for Using the Auto-Step Feature

Volume 3, Number 7

  • Lead Article: Designer Funds --- only recently have these kinds of funds become available and they’re important tools for mutual fund investors and traders.
  • Kick Starting: Receiving DAA’s From Your Friends – the last issue described how to send DAA’s to your friends, here’s how to receive and use them.
  • Exotica: Finding the Best Combination of Funds, Trading Systems and thus Portfolios – a very interesting and useful concept.

Volume 3, Number 8

  • Lead Article: Ultra --- describes the Ultra Market Timing Service which allows you to build your own comprehensive market timing method.
  • Kick Starting: Integrating Ultra with Monocle --- a “how-to” article.
  • Exotica: The Inputs for Ultra’s Market Timing Systems

Volume 3, Number 9

  • Lead Article: Ultra Designer Trilogy – the 3rd article in a series, the first two described the new Designer funds, the 2nd one the Ultra market timing service and this article pulls it all together and puts everything into practice.
  • Exotica: Integrating Ultra Composite Market Timing Models with Monocle

Volume 3, Number 10

  • Lead Article: Simple Triple Revised & Walk-Forward Optimization --- great ideas on improving systems and a thorough illustration of how to use walk-forward optimization for the most realistic system testing ever.
  • Kick Starting: HMD’s Need to be Checked --- discusses HMD’s (Hold Minimum Days) settings in Monocle and suggests ways to avoid problems.
  • Exotica: How to use Walk-Forward Optimization --- a “how-to” article.

Volume 3, Number 11

  • Lead Article: A Nice Index --- explains an important measurement of risk. 

Volume 3, Number 12

  • Lead Article: Results for 1998 --- a summary article of the performance results for 1998 for the Achieve Systems. Results are measured in terms of both returns and risk and displayed in a single chart.
  • Kick Starting: Details on Calculating Performance
  • Exotica: How to see “Multi-Fund Charts” --- a “how-to” article.

Volume 4, Number 1

  • Lead Article: The Best for 1999 --- recommended Achieve systems for calendar year 1999.
  • Kick Starting: Transitioning to the New Year
  • Exotica: How to See Data with Legend – illustrates this useful Monocle feature.

Volume 4, Number 2

  • Lead Article: Supertanker --- describes a new system for trading the S&P 500 index.
  • Kick Starting: Picking a Pseudo Money Market Fund --- sometimes a real money market fund will not be as useful in systems development work as a substitute fund. This article covers all the details.
  • Exotica: Curve Fitting and Out of Sample Performance Indexes --- key information for system developers.

Volume 4, Number 3

  • Lead Article: Investing --- how do people match their investment to their comfort levels? This article discusses the key methods and suggests several approaches that you can use to accomplish this important task.
  • Kick Starting: Specifying a New Fund Group – a “how-to” article for Monocle Users.
  • Exotica: How to Setup a New Trading System (DAA) --- a “how-to” article.
Volume 1, Number 3